If there is a better sub to submit this to, please let me know.
I am in a football pick em pool where each week we pick the game winners and receive points for correct picks.
This week, there are 2 games to pick with 4 teams to choose from. Each game is worth 5 points this week for a possible total of 10 points.
The current point rankings before this week are
Player 1 – 222 pts
Player 2 (me) – 218 pts
Player 3 – 215 pts
At the beginning of the season, we made preseason picks for the teams that would make the Superbowl that are worth bonus points. Each preseason pick to make the Superbowl is worth 3 points and picking the winner of the Superbowl preseason is worth 5 points.
Team 1 and Team 2 (me) have 1 team live for Superbowl bonus points (both picked New Orleans). Best case scenario = 3 bonus points. Plus 5 points if New Orleans wins the Superbowl.
Team 3 has 2 teams live for the Superbowl (New England and Los Angeles). Best case scenario is 6 bonus points. Plus 5 points if Los Angeles wins the Superbowl.
So taking into account current points, the points from this week’s picks, and possible bonus points, how would I find what the best expected value picks are this week?
New Orleans vs Los Angeles
Kansas City vs New England
I know that all of this is based on each team having an equal projected winning percentage. In actuality, New Orleans is projected to have a 63% chance to win and Kansas City 60%. I don’t know if this is necessary info or if it makes things too convoluted, but I wanted to provide as much info as possible.
So, this week’s picks are worth 5 points each.
Bonus picks are worth 3 points each for picking the 2 Superbowl participants. 5 points for picking the Superbowl winner.
I can’t know the other player’s picks, but I can guess. That makes it a bit harder to write out decision trees for all of this because I wouldn’t know what tree would be accurate.
Is there any way someone could help me?