[Q] Forecasting based on Fixed Total / Holts Winter?

Currently doing a forecast on defective items (the items are defective and needs to be fixed) and I’m kind of stuck.

Around 200,000 defective items and every month about 4000 of them gets fixed. Every 2-3 months, there are promotions to clients in getting the defective items fixed since they are a liability issue. How would I go about in creating a forecast for the upcoming months? Somewhat volatile data, as some months get 2000 fixed and some months 5000 fixed, seems to have a yearly downward trend in completion rate (this is to be expected since we are decreasing the total population every month) . I’m looking into using Holts-Winter but was unsure if there are other better methods to forecast with.

submitted by /u/paradox10196
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Nevin Manimala

Nevin Manimala is interested in blogging and finding new blogs https://nevinmanimala.com

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